by Ralph L. BLock
The public market is a strange beast. While some claim it is efficient and
rational, the student of market history knows that it's often fickle, emotional
and short-sighted. Manias appear on the investment scene with amazing
regularity; the personalities of these creatures are always different, but their
ability to make fools of investors is ever-present. The stocks of individual
companies and even entire industries are subject to the passions of
performance-crazed investors, and for surprisingly long periods prices can soar
wildly or sink like stones, regardless of intrinsic values.
Years of
above-average performance by the broader market indices have emboldened
investors to seek extraordinary returns. Surveys regularly report that a very
large number of today's investors would be sorely disappointed with annual
returns below 20 percent. Look at the Internet and tech stocks in 1999.
Internet-related IPOs regularly double and triple overnight. According to
Strategic Insight, the amount of dollars which flowed into high-tech mutual
funds in the first ten months of last year was more than the total amount
collected by such funds during the prior ten years combined.
Thus it should
be no surprise to us that our stocks have been brutally treated despite healthy
real estate markets, solid balance sheets and growing cash flows and dividends.
I'm not saying that investment style is the only reason for our two year bear
market. REITs issued too much equity from 1996 through 1998, while many
managements, new to the public markets, made errors of judgment such as issuing
equity forwards. And, with hindsight, REIT prices were simply too high in 1997,
given the maturity of the real estate cycle and the impending shutdown of the
capital markets. Still, the excessive sell-off of REIT shares owes as much to
growth-oriented investing and the quest for 20 percent returns as to any other
cause. We weren't the only sector which was treated poorly last year.
So
where do we go from here? REIT organizations have already begun to adjust to the
difficult environment. They should continue to avoid the temptation to lever up
the balance sheet (or to raise equity at the first sign of a market turnaround),
while taking advantage of the strength in Main Street real estate by culling
portfolios. Sale proceeds can be used to reduce debt, fund value-adding
developments and buy in stock at significant discounts to NAV. Internally, the
morale of the management team shouldn't be neglected. This may require the
creation of alternatives to underwater stock options—even if it means additional
compensation expense.
REIT organizations would also do well to reach out to
investor organizations more frequently to tell their story; not all investors
are tech junkies, and many of them would love to add REIT stocks to their
portfolios if they can develop confidence
in REITs' future business
prospects. Above all, we should continue to refine our understanding of the
public market and its expectations, promising only what we can realistically
deliver. Our story is a compelling one; we need only dedication, perseverance
and patience.
Ralph L. Block is executive vice president of Bay Isle
Financial of San Francisco, CA.